Changing how we think about carbon removals | #17
Changing how we think about carbon removals | #17
Removing carbon from the atmosphere is hard, and as it stands, not enough. Lets see if we can change the mindset a little.
👋 Hey, this is one of the more serious posts where every Tuesday and Friday you get something about product management, tech, or sustainability, and how they fit together. If that sounds interesting, sign up😊.
Using carbon dioxide removals (CDR) to reduce emissions to get to net zero is, scientifically, a good idea. But, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that up to 10 billion tonnes of removals are needed every year by 2050, to meet the Paris Agreement targets. If this sounds like a lot, it’s because it is. It requires new ways of thinking about CDRs and their role in addressing the climate crisis.
A systematic approach
Common solutions like engineered removals rely heavily on foundational activities, from the actual capture and processing of CO2, to its transportation and storage. Nature-based removals rely on numerous variables like the long-term management of land, and technological removals require significant volumes of electricity, water, and heat to be actually effective.
The quality of the solution depends simply, and entirely, on whether the CO2 removed from the atmosphere is greater than the CO2 emitted during the development, removal, and storage processes. This means all emissions, upstream and downstream, must be included in the accounting of the removals.
A systemic approach means considering everything from the physical resources required to operate the capture and storage facilities, to the capital requirements for a specific end-to-end carbon removal project. Anyone considering developing or investing in these removal processes, on whatever scale, needs to be very aware of this fact. They need to ask about it, and shut down any idea of supporting CDRs that do not take this systematic approach.
Exponential change
With a systematic approach in mind, we know the world needs to remove at least 10 Gt of CO₂ every year, by 2050, to keep global warming to 1.5C. Today, only ~0.1 Gt of CO₂ is removed each year through negative emissions technologies. I.e a linear trajectory for growing carbon removal and storage capacity is not enough. But taking a faster approach only works if there are policies in place to ensure progress isn't hampered by technological 'lock-ins', where people get stuck on specific solutions.
We need an exponential approach. In practice, this means countries and companies setting progressive targets to track progress and provide signals for further development. With targets set they can adequately invest and develop projects to meet their targets and properly anticipate further investment to allow them to consider the situation as the long term problem that it is.
Policies should outline a series of short-term targets on an international level that can then be differentiated to smaller and smaller scales. Short-term targets should define a realistic way to ensure the investment is not disconnected from the higher level, international, goals. For the techies out there, think OKRs.
It’s all limited, we need ubiquity
Of course, even if we achieved exponential growth, CDRs are finite. The resources required to deliver removals; capital, energy, and storage capacity, are limited. And developing them comes at the expense of decarbonization or adaptation solutions. When developing CDRs these limitations need to be taken into account.
Not long ago, CDRs were solely associated with reforestation projects. Today, new approaches such as carbon farming, and storage conversion projects have changed society's perspective on the limits of CDR.
The scale of the challenge requires an 'all of the above' approach to the deployment of different carbon removal and storage approaches, without compromising carbon reductions. We need to advocate a ubiquitous approach. With more investment in innovation and new methodologies society can stretch the limits of existing CDRs.
From exclusive to inclusive
Unfortunately though, that required investment sits inevitably, and somewhat exclusively, in the 1% of people, while Climate change does not. Yet energy related inequalities, like pollution and the cost of energy, disproportionately affect poorer countries and communities. These inequalities can be easily exacerbated by CDR.
There’s a school of thought that says local, global, and intergenerational environmental justice is critical for developing high-quality removals. Speculating that a 'social license to operate' is necessary to get buy-in for removals from investors, policy makers, civil society, and communities.
I tend to disagree. This is not necessarily an imperative. CDRs are likely to be concentrated in the global North, and with the global elite. It is unfortunate, but it’s true. What we should be doing, rather than making this a conditional statement, is encouraging inclusivity in developing CDRs.
Centre’s of excellence – carbon removal industry hubs or valleys – could, for example, be developed wherever the natural conditions are most promising. The way the western world is built means it is likely the majority of the investment will come from the global north. If the global north would be inclusive and start diverting their investment across this small world we live in, all of a sudden the potential surface area for CDRs is doubled.
Conclusion
I started with effectively, ‘do your due diligence’ to let’s convince the global elite to care. Changing the way one person thinks takes a lot of work, changing the way a population thinks takes a miracle. But it can happen.
These four sequential ways are a starting point and are intended to get you thinking. But really, the best thing you can do out of the back of this is to talk more about it. You likely won’t be able to make a big difference but if we can get enough people talking about it maybe we can inspire someone who can.
Thanks for reading. The best way to support this newsletter is to sign up if you haven’t already, share it around, and get your friends to sign up too. That’s what this lovely purple button is for …